Pattern-oriented modeling of commons dilemma experiments

Title:	Pattern-oriented modeling of commons dilemma experiments
Category:	Miscellaneous
Detail:	Gastvorlesung
Date:	13. July 2009, 11:00 - 12:00
Venue:	Forum Chriesbach, Dübendorf
	FC-D24
Speaker:	Marco Janssen, Assistant Professor, Arizona State University, Tempe AZ (USA)
Leader:	Robert Tobias, Senior Scientist, Eawag, Siam, Dübendorf (CH)
Organisation:	Robert Tobias, Senior Scientist, Eawag, Siam, Dübendorf (CH)
Download:	as calendar event

In our quest to understand what make groups successful in cooperating to share common resources like fresh water and fish stocks, we combine experiments and agent-based models. A major challenge in the development of computational models of collective behavior is the empirical validation. Experimental data from a spatially explicit dynamic commons dilemma experiment is used to empirically ground an agent-based model. Three distinct patterns are identified in the data. Two naïve models, random walk and greedy agents, do not produce data that match the patterns. A more comprehensive model is presented that explains how participants make movement and harvest decisions. Using pattern-oriented modeling the parameter space is explored to identify the parameter combinations that meet the three identified patterns. Less than 0.1% of the parameter combinations meet all the patterns. These parameter settings were used to successfully predict the patterns of a new set of experiments.