Inputs zur gesellschaftlichen Entscheidungsfindung

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) requires an accurate representation of the preferences of decision-makers, for instance in the form of a multi-attribute value function. Typically, additivity or other stringent assumptions about the preferences are made to facilitate elicitation by assuming a simple parametric form. When relaxing such assumptions, parameters cannot be elicited easily with standard methods. We present a novel approach for identifying multi-attribute value functions which can have any shape. As preference information indifference statements are used that can be elicited by trade-off questions. Instead of asking one indifference statement for each pair of attributes, we ask for multiple trade-offs at different points in the attribute space. This allows inferring parameters of complex value functions despite the simplicity of the preference statements. Parameters are estimated by taking into account preference and elicitation uncertainty with a probabilistic model. Statistical inference supports identifying the most adequate preference model out of several candidate models through quantifying the uncertainty and assessing the need for non-additivity. The approach is elaborated for determining value functions by hierarchical aggregation. We apply it to an assessment of the ecological state of rivers, which is used to support environmental management decisions in Switzerland. Preference models of four experts were quantified, confirming the feasibility of the approach and the relevance of considering non-additive functions. The method suggests a promising direction for improving the representation of preferences.

An increasing number of knowledge brokers work at the interface between research, policy and practice. Their function is to facilitate processes to foster mutual learning among research, policy and practice. For some knowledge brokers, practical methodologies to assess the quality of their work is an important concern. While frameworks exist for assessing research impact at the level of a project or program, few are available for assessing contributions of individual knowledge brokers. In response to this, we have compiled a set of indicators to measure the quantity and quality of the contributions of individual knowledge brokers to projects, programs or platforms at the interface between research, policy and practice. The set is based on a review of the literature and the experience of a group of knowledge brokers active in water research and management in Switzerland, including the co-authors of this article. The set can be used by knowledge brokers to identify ways to improve the effectiveness of their practices and to demonstrate the benefit of their work to their employers and other stakeholders. Our approach is flexible enough that it can be applied where there are limited resources available for assessment.

Urban water management represents a core economic sector exposed to global water-related challenges.Recently, small modular system configurations have been identified to enable a potential sustainability transitionin this lasting and rather conservative sector. The identification of current market potentials of decentralisedwastewater treatment is a first step to assess whether decentralised treatment technologies could potentially bedeployed on a larger scale in Europe, which would allow current decentralised wastewater treatment technologiesto develop and mature. The paper elaborates a method to assess the market potential for decentralisedwastewater treatment systems by starting from a raster-based geospatial modelling framework, to determine theoptimal degrees of centralisation for the case of Switzerland. The resulting market potential is shown to betwenty times higher than the current market share of decentralised systems. In order to extrapolate thesefindings to other countries, the calculated optimal degrees of centralisation were correlated with different spatialdensity measures to determine a reliable and widely available proxy: population density. Based on this indicator,the European market potentials for decentralised treatment systems are estimated to be about 100,000 units perannum serving around 35 million population equivalents. The paper concludes by discussing implications forfuture sustainability transitions in urban water management by large-scale installation of small modular wastewatertreatment systems.