Inputs zur gesellschaftlichen Entscheidungsfindung

Theories of behaviour change and health behaviour change interventions are most often evaluated in between-person designs. However, behaviour change theories apply to individuals not groups and behavioural interventions ultimately aim to achieve within-person rather than between-group change. Within-person methodology, such as N-of-1 (also known as single case design), can circumvent this issue, though has multiple design-specific challenges. This paper provides a conceptual review of the challenges and potential solutions for undertaking N-of-1 studies in health psychology. Key challenges identified include participant adherence to within-person protocols, carry-over and slow onset effects, suitability of behaviour change techniques for evaluation in N-of-1 experimental studies, optimal allocation sequencing and blinding, calculating power/sample size, and choosing the most suitable analysis approach. Key solutions include involving users in study design, employing recent technologies for unobtrusive data collection and problem solving by design. Within-person designs share common methodological requirements with conventional between-person designs but require specific methodological considerations. N-of-1 evaluation designs are appropriate for many though not all types of interventions. A greater understanding of patterns of behaviours and factors influencing behaviour change at the within-person level is required to progress health psychology into a precision science.
Video abstract: Supplementary Material 1.

Ubiquitous sensing will create many opportunities and threats for urban water management, which are only poorly understood today. To identify the most relevant trends, we conducted a horizon scan regarding how ubiquitous sensing will shape the future of urban drainage and wastewater management. Our survey of the international urban water community received an active response from both the academics and the professionals from the water industry. The analysis of the responses demonstrates that emerging topics for urban water will often involve experts from different communities, including aquatic ecologists, urban water system engineers and managers, as well as information and communications technology professionals and computer scientists. Activities in topics that are identified as novel will either require (i) cross-disciplinary training, such as importing new developments from the IT sector, or (ii) research in new areas for urban water specialists, for example, to help solve open questions in aquatic ecology. These results are, therefore, a call for interdisciplinary research beyond our own discipline. They also demonstrate that the water management community is not yet prepared for the digital transformation, where we will experience a data demand, i.e. a “pull” of urban water data into external services. The results suggest that a lot remains to be done to harvest the upcoming opportunities. Horizon scanning should be repeated on a routine basis, under the umbrella of an experienced polling organization.

In this study, we examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of water stress in China for the historical (1971–2010) and the future (2021–2050) periods using a multimodel simulation approach. Three water stress indices (WSIs), that is, the ratios of water withdrawals to locally generated runoff (WSI_R), to natural streamflow (WSI_Q), and to natural streamflow minus upstream consumptive water withdrawals (WSI_C), are used for the assessment. At the basin level, WSI_R estimates generally match the reported data and indicate severe water stress in most northern basins. At the grid cell level, the WSIs show distinct spatial patterns of water stress wherein WSI_R (WSI_Q) estimates higher (lower) water stress compared to WSI_C. Based on the WSI_C estimates, 368 million people (nearly one third of the total population) are affected by severe water stress annually during the historical period, while WSI_R and WSI_Q suggest 595 and 340 million, respectively. Future projections of WSI_C indicate that more than 600 million people (43% of the total) might be affected by severe water stress, and half of China's land area would be exposed to stress. The found aggravating water stress conditions could be partly attributed to the elevated future water withdrawals. This study emphasizes the necessity of considering explicit upstream and downstream relations with respect to both water availability and water use in water stress assessment and calls for more attention to increasing levels of water stress in China in the coming decades.

The Mar Menor is the largest lagoon along the Spanish Mediterranean coast. It suffers from eutrophication and algal blooms associated with intensive agricultural activities and urban pressure in the surrounding Campo de Cartagena plain. A balanced discharge of groundwater, carrier of algal nutrients such as nitrate, is essential to ensure the integrity of the coastal lagoon and the availability of groundwater resources inland. We here present a 3D hydrogeological model of the unconfined Quaternary aquifer that discharges into the lagoon. The model couples both surface water balance and groundwater dynamics and has been calibrated to available data in the period 2000–2016. The calibrated model allows understanding of the current state of the aquifer and its link to the lagoon. The potential discharge has been quantified in both space and time and falls between 69.5 and 84.9 hm³/yr during dry and wet periods, respectively (with values of nitrate discharge of 11.4–11.8 Mkg/yr in the absence of aquifer sink terms, e.g., leakage to deeper aquifers and pumping from groundwater wells). The predictive capabilities of the calibrated model can be used to test the impact of different integrated management scenarios on the surface-groundwater dynamics of the catchment. Three plausible management scenarios are proposed that include localized and distributed groundwater pumping (drains and groundwater wells, respectively). Results show the effectiveness of the scenarios in reducing the groundwater and nitrate discharge into the lagoon. The disadvantages of the proposed scenarios, including potential seawater intrusion, need to be balanced with their relative merits for the sustainable development of the region and the survival of the Mar Menor ecosystem. The modelling approach proposed provides a valuable tool for the integrated and holistic management of the Campo de Cartagena-Mar Menor catchment and should be of great interest to similar hydrological systems with high ecological value.

Governance networks describe the complex relations among different types of actors involved in the governance of a policy issue. Here, we ask how different institutional and socioeconomic contextual conditions influence the structure of these networks and result in more horizontal or hierarchical types of governance networks. To answer this question, we study Vietnam’s sanitation sector and compare two different provinces, Hanoi and Ben Tre. More specifically, we analyze networks of information exchange among key actors based on face-to-face interviews and prestructured questionnaires. We find that in the highly urbanized capital city of Hanoi, which serves as a national leader of innovation, where national and international actors are present, and where local actors have high capacities, information exchange tends to follow horizontal network structures. In the more rural, typical province of Ben Tre, hierarchical structures dominate.