Ecosystems

Iran is experiencing unprecedented climate-related problems such as drying of lakes and rivers, dust storms, record-breaking temperatures, droughts, and floods. Here, we use the ensemble of five high-resolution climate models to project maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall distribution, calculate occurrences of extreme temperatures (temperatures above and below the historical 95th and 5th percentiles, respectively), analyze compound of precipitation and temperature extremes, and determine flooding frequencies across the country. We found that compared to the period of 1980–2004, in the period of 2025–2049, Iran is likely to experience more extended periods of extreme maximum temperatures in the southern part of the country, more extended periods of dry (for ≥120 days: precipitation <2 mm, Tmax ≥30 °C) as well as wet (for ≤3 days: total precipitation ≥110 mm) conditions, and higher frequency of floods. Overall, the combination of these results projects a climate of extended dry periods interrupted by intermittent heavy rainfalls, which is a recipe for increasing the chances of floods. Without thoughtful adaptability measures, some parts of the country may face limited habitability in the future.

Water pollution is ubiquitous globally, yet how the effects of pollutants propagate through natural ecosystems remains poorly understood. This is because the interactive effects of multiple stressors are generally hard to predict. Agriculture and municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) are often major sources of contaminants for streams, but their relative importance and the role of different pollutants (e.g. nutrients or pesticides) are largely unknown. Using a 'real world experiment' with sampling locations up- and downstream of WWTPs, we studied how effluent discharges affected water quality and macroinvertebrate communities in 23 Swiss streams across a broad land-use gradient.
Variation partitioning of community composition revealed that overall water quality explained approximately 30% of community variability, whereby nutrients and pesticides each independently explained 10% and 2%, respectively. Excluding oligochaetes (which were highly abundant downstream of the WWTPs) from the analyses, resulted in a relatively stronger influence (3%) of pesticides on the macroinvertebrate community composition, whereas nutrients had no influence. Generally, the macroinvertebrate community composition downstream of the WWTPs strongly reflected the upstream conditions, likely due to a combination of efficient treatment processes, environmental filtering and organismal dispersal. Wastewater impacts were most prominently by the Saprobic index, whereas the SPEAR index (a trait-based macroinvertebrate metrics reflecting sensitivity to pesticides) revealed a strong impact of arable cropping but only a weak impact of wastewater.
Overall, our results indicate that agriculture can have a stronger impact on headwater stream macroinvertebrate communities than discharges from WWTP. Yet, effects of wastewater-born micropollutants were clearly quantifiable among all other influence factors. Improving our ability to further quantify the impacts of micropollutants requires highly-resolved water quality and taxonomic data with adequate spatial and temporal sampling. These improvements would help to better account for the underlying causal pathways that drive observed biological responses, such as episodic contaminant peaks and dispersal-related processes.

Remote sensing helps foster our understanding of inland water processes allowing a synoptic view of water quality parameters. In the context of global monitoring of inland waters, we demonstrate the benefit of combining in-situ water analysis, hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing for investigating biogeochemical processes. This methodology has the potential to be used at global scales. We take the example of four Landsat-8 scenes acquired by the OLI sensor and MODIS-Aqua imagery over Lake Geneva (France—Switzerland) from spring to early summer 2014. Remotely sensed data suggest a strong temporal and spatial variability during this period. We show that combining the complementary spatial, spectral and temporal resolutions of these sensors allows for a comprehensive characterization of estuarine, littoral and pelagic near-surface features. Moreover, by combining in-situ measurements, biogeochemical analysis and hydrodynamic modelling with remote sensing data, we can link these features to river intrusion and calcite precipitation processes, which regularly occur in late spring or early summer. In this context, we propose a procedure that can be used to monitor whiting events in temperate lakes worldwide.

Fertilization, crop uptake followed by plant harvest, runoff and erosion, and transformations ofphosphorus (P) in soil are the major factors influencing the P balance of croplands. It is important to integrateplant-soil-management interactions into consistent modeling systems to determine the effect of Pfertilization conditions on yields and to quantify P losses. Previous assessment of P losses on large scales didnot consider the interactions among these factors. Here we applied a grid-based crop model to estimateglobal P losses from three most produced crops: maize, rice, and wheat. The model was forced by detailed Pinput data sets over the period 1998–2002. According to our simulations, global P losses from the threecrops reached 1.2 Tg P/year, and about 44% of it was due to soil erosion. The global total P losses weredominated by contributions from a few hot spot regions. Reducing P fertilizer in regions experiencingexcessive P uses and hence losses, especially in China and India, could achieve the same yields as today andsave about two thirds of global total P inputs, with the cobenefits of declining global total P losses by 41%and downstream water quality improvement. Reducing soil erosion and retaining more crop residues oncroplands could further save P inputs and alleviate P losses. This study is of significance to determine themajor factors influencing P balance across regions of the world and help policy makers to propose efficientstrategies for tackling P-driven environmental problems.