Biases in Judgment and Decision Making: History and Relevance for Prescriptive Analysis

January 29, 2018, 8.45 am - 9.45 am

Eawag Dübendorf

Speaker: Prof. Dr. Detlof von Winterfeldt, Tiberti Chair for Ethics and Decision Making, Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California
Place: Forum Chriesbach, FC-C20 

The first part of this presentation will introduce the history of research on biases in judgment and decision making (JDM) from the early 50s to the mid-seventies. The second part will describe the split between prescriptive and descriptive JDM research that started about 1970. The third part will address a core issue: Which of the numerous biases found in JDM are relevant to Decision and Risk Analysis (DRA) and Operations Research (OR) and which are not relevant? The presentation will conclude with an agenda for research to reduce biases in DRA and OR. Prof. Dr. Detlof von Winterfeldt is renowned for his research and expertise in the foundation and practice of decision and risk analysis applied to the areas of technology development, environmental risks, natural hazards and terrorism. Do not miss this unique opportunity at Eawag!