Abteilung Systemanalyse, Integrated Assessment und Modellierung

Wasser, bewaffnete Konflikte und erzwungene Migration

Kigeme Refugee camp, Photo credit: Oxfam East Africa, CC by 2.0 Deed
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kigeme_refugee_camp_(8073663190).jpg

Wasserressourcen und bewaffnete Konflikte stehen in einer engen Wechselbeziehung zueinander. Wasserknappheit schafft durch ihre Auswirkungen auf die Ernährungssicherheit und die Einkommensunsicherheit günstige Bedingungen für Konflikte, während umgekehrt bewaffnete Konflikte den Wasserkreislauf beeinflussen, indem sie die Landwirtschaft stören und Flüchtlinge und deren Wasserbedarf vertreiben. Wir beschreiben diese Wechselwirkungen sowohl aus einer empirischen Perspektive, indem wir die Auswirkungen vergangener bewaffneter Konflikte auf die Verfügbarkeit von Nahrungsmitteln und Wasser untersuchen, als auch aus einer theoretischen/vorhersagenden Perspektive, indem wir das Potenzial hydrologischer Veränderungen für zukünftige Konflikte untersuchen.

Team

Dr. Marc Müller Tel. +41 58 765 6740 Inviare e-mail
Dr. Julie Faure Tel. +41 58 765 5968 Inviare e-mail

Publikationen

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      authors => protected'Bertassello, L.; Winters, P.; Müller, M. F.' (64 chars)
      title => protected'Access to global wheat reserves determines country-level vulnerability to co
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      description => protected'The Russia–Ukraine conflict reduced global wheat supplies, yet the food se
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         felt in Egypt, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Mauritania, Yemen and Lebanon. Dif
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Access to global wheat reserves determines country-level vulnerability to conflict-induced Ukrainian wheat supply disruption

The Russia–Ukraine conflict reduced global wheat supplies, yet the food security implications vary across countries. We identify a 39% decrease in Ukrainian wheat exports in 2022 resulting in >70% import losses in some of the countries most vulnerable to these disruptions, with substantial impacts felt in Egypt, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Mauritania, Yemen and Lebanon. Differential impacts are a function of access to capital and international trade, suggesting the need for policy measures to defuse the impending food crisis.
Bertassello, L.; Winters, P.; Müller, M. F. (2023) Access to global wheat reserves determines country-level vulnerability to conflict-induced Ukrainian wheat supply disruption, Nature Food, 4, 673-676, doi:10.1038/s43016-023-00806-w, Institutional Repository

Kontakt

Dr. Marc Müller Tel. +41 58 765 6740 Inviare e-mail