1. While many studies on insect diversity report declines, others show stable, fluctuating or increasing trends. For a thorough understanding of insect trends and their effects on ecosystem functioning, it is important to simultaneously assess insect richness, abundance and biomass, and to report trends for multiple taxa.
2. We analysed insect richness, abundance and biomass data for all insects and for eight insect taxa (Buprestidae, Cerambycidae, Carabidae, other Coleoptera, Aculeata, other Hymenoptera, Heteroptera and Lepidoptera) from 42 sites across Switzerland from 2000 to 2007, representing three major habitat types in Switzerland (agricultural, unmanaged [open and forested] and managed forest habitats). As potential drivers of temporal patterns, we evaluated weather- and land-use-related factors. As predictors, we included temperature and precipitation as well as the vegetation index and the habitat type, respectively.
3. We found a consistent pattern of stable or increasing trends for richness, abundance and biomass of insects in total and the eight taxa over 8 years. Both overall patterns and six out of eight taxa (except for Cerambycidae and Lepidotpera) showed the highest values in agricultural habitats. However, when accounting for elevation, there was no difference in open habitats regardless of whether they were used agriculturally.
4. Habitat types were the most important predictors, followed by weather- and vegetation-related factors. Modelled responses to mean temperature were unimodal, whereas the standard deviation of temperature showed positive and precipitation negative effects. Longer time series are needed to draw robust inferences and to investigate potential negative effects of future warming.

Increasing temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change are leading to changes in the composition of local communities across biomes. This has implications for ecological assessment methods that rely on macroinvertebrates as bioindicators of water quality. To investigate the influence of changing water temperature on these assessment methods, we analysed macroinvertebrate data from Swiss national monitoring programs. We used a species distribution model to simulate temperature change effects on macroinvertebrate communities and estimated the resulting changes on three biological indices commonly used in Switzerland, namely the species richness of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT), the Swiss biological (IBCH) index along with its components, as well as the species at risk pesticides (SPEAR_pesticides) index. While results vary by temperature scenario and index, our model results for the most realistic water temperature increase scenario of + 2 °C across most sites in Switzerland suggest no, or only a minor, influence of temperature (not accounting for other hydrological changes). Our model projection predicted only a small increase in the probability of occurrence for 70 % of the studied families. The sensitivity to temperature as captured in our model is generally not very high and varies among the biological indices: on average across all sites, a + 2 °C increase in temperature resulted in a 7 % increase in EPT species richness, a 4 % increase in the IBCH index, and a less than 1 % increase in the SPEAR_pesticides index. Our study suggests the robustness of these biological indices to moderate warming and points towards the usefulness of these biological indices for the next few decades as tools for water quality assessment. Despite some limitations of statistical species distribution models (e.g., not accounting for dispersal limitation or biotic interactions, predictive performance varying by taxon), the study provides valuable insights into the complex relationships between environmental factors and macroinvertebrate communities, and the potential impacts of future temperature change. These findings can inform conservation and management efforts for these important ecological systems.

Chemical pollution can threaten biodiversity at different levels, from genetically diverse populations (genetic diversity) to different species (species diversity) and ecosystem traits/interactions (functional diversity). Most assessments of chemical impacts on different biodiversity levels depend on wet lab and field experiments, including sequencing large numbers of organisms, environmental DNA approaches, single chemical-species-outcome toxicity tests, and trait-based methods. However, it is impossible to assess all chemicals, species, populations, and ecosystems using these methods. Therefore, we advocate that computational methods are necessary to characterize, quantify, and predict chemical impacts on biodiversity. We briefly introduce the current state of research into chemical impacts on genetic diversity, species diversity, and functional diversity and describe new opportunities for computational methods like data integration, machine learning, cross-species/cross-ecosystem extrapolation, adverse outcome pathways, and Bayesian methods to support research in these three areas. By harnessing data and methods currently at our disposal and preparing methods to take advantage of continuously emerging data sets, computational approaches can be paired with environmental monitoring so different levels of biological organization can serve as consecutive warning signs for chemical impacts on biodiversity. This will enable effective ecosystem protection measures to be better developed and implemented to prevent biodiversity loss from chemical pollution.

Das Priorisierungskonzept zur Sanierung von künstlichen Fischwanderhindernissen beruht auf Fragmentierungsanalysen des Einzugsgebiets. Diese bieten einen Überblick über die für Fische zusammenhängenden Regionen im aktuellen und im natürlichen Zustand. Hindernisse, deren Sanierung die Vernetzung mit dem Hauptfluss verbessert oder grosse zusammenhängende Regionen verbindet, bringen einen besonders grossen potenziellen Gewinn für die Fischgemeinschaft.

Species distribution models are commonly applied to predict species responses to environmental conditions. A wide variety of models with different properties exist that vary in complexity, which affects their predictive performance and interpretability. Machine learning algorithms are increasingly used because they are capable to capture complex relationships and are often better in prediction. However, to inform environmental management, it is important that a model predicts well for the right reasons. It remains a challenge to select a model with a reasonable level of complexity that captures the true relationship between the response and explanatory variables as good as possible rather than fitting to the noise in the data.
In this study we ask: 1) how much predictive performance can we gain by using increasingly complex models, 2) how does model complexity affect the degree of overfitting, and 3) do the inferred responses differ among models and what can we learn from them? To address these questions, we applied eight models with different complexity to predict the probability of occurrence of freshwater macroinvertebrate taxa based on 2729 Swiss monitoring samples. We compared the models in terms of predictive performance during cross-validation and for generalization out of the calibration domain ("extrapolation" or transferability). We applied model agnostic tools to shed light on model interpretability.
Contrary to our expectation, all models predicted similarly well during cross-validation, while no model predicted better than the null model during out-of-domain generalization on average over all taxa. Performance was best for taxa with intermediate prevalence. More complex models predicted slightly better than standard statistical models but were prone to overfitting.
Overfitting indicates that a model describes not only the signal in the data but also part of the noise. This impedes the interpretation of response shapes learned by the model, because one cannot distinguish the signal from the noise. Furthermore, the strongly overfitting models learned irregular relationships and strong interactions that are ecologically not plausible. Thus, in this study, the minor gain in predictive performance from more complex models was outweighed by the overfitting.
Ecological field data that is used as model input or for calibration is typically prone to different sources of variability, from sampling, the measurement process and stochasticity. We therefore call for caution when using complex data-driven models to learn about species responses or to inform environmental management. In such cases, we recommend to compare a range of models regarding their predictive performance, overfitting and response shapes to better understand the robustness of inferred responses.

Human impacts such as habitat loss, climate change and biological invasions are radically altering biodiversity, with greater effects projected into the future. Evidence suggests human impacts may differ substantially between terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but the reasons for these differences are poorly understood. We propose an integrative approach to explain these differences by linking impacts to four fundamental processes that structure communities: dispersal, speciation, species-level selection and ecological drift. Our goal is to provide process-based insights into why human impacts, and responses to impacts, may differ across ecosystem types using a mechanistic, eco-evolutionary comparative framework. To enable these insights, we review and synthesise (i) how the four processes influence diversity and dynamics in terrestrial versus freshwater communities, specifically whether the relative importance of each process differs among ecosystems, and (ii) the pathways by which human impacts can produce divergent responses across ecosystems, due to differences in the strength of processes among ecosystems we identify. Finally, we highlight research gaps and next steps, and discuss how this approach can provide new insights for conservation. By focusing on the processes that shape diversity in communities, we aim to mechanistically link human impacts to ongoing and future changes in ecosystems.

Effluents of wastewater treatment plants can impact microbial communities in the receiving streams. However, little is known about the role of microorganisms in wastewater as opposed to other wastewater constituents, such as nutrients and micropollutants. We aimed therefore at determining the impact of wastewater microorganisms on the microbial diversity and function of periphyton, key microbial communities in streams. We used a flow-through channel system to grow periphyton upon exposure to a mixture of stream water and unfiltered or ultra-filtered wastewater. Impacts were assessed on periphyton biomass, activities and tolerance to micropollutants, as well as on microbial diversity. Our results showed that wastewater microorganisms colonized periphyton and modified its community composition, resulting for instance in an increased abundance of Chloroflexi and a decreased abundance of diatoms and green algae. This led to shifts towards heterotrophy, as suggested by the changes in nutrient stoichiometry and the increased mineralization potential of carbon substrates. An increased tolerance towards micropollutants was only found for periphyton exposed to unfiltered wastewater but not to ultra-filtered wastewater, suggesting that wastewater microorganisms were responsible for this increased tolerance. Overall, our results highlight the need to consider the role of wastewater microorganisms when studying potential impacts of wastewater on the receiving water body.

Recently, a plethora of studies reporting insect declines has been published. Even though the common theme is decreasing insect richness, positive trends have also been documented. Here, we analysed nationwide, systematic monitoring data on aquatic insect richness collected at 438 sites in Switzerland from 2010 to 2019. In addition to taxonomic richness, we grouped taxa in accordance with their ecological preferences and functional traits to gain a better understanding of trends and possible underlying mechanisms. We found that in general, richness of aquatic insects remained stable or increased with time. Warm-adapted taxa, common feeding guilds and pesticide-tolerant taxa showed increasing patterns while cold-adapted, rarer feeding guilds and pesticide-sensitive taxa displayed stable trends. Both climate and land-use-related factors were the most important explanatory variables for the patterns of aquatic insect richness. Although our data cover the last decade only, our results suggest that recent developments in insect richness are context-dependent and affect functional groups differently. However, longer investigations and a good understanding of the baseline are important to reveal if the increase in temperature- and pesticide-tolerant species will lead to a decrease in specialized species and a homogenization of biotic communities in the long term.

Daten zur zeitlichen Entwicklung der Vielfalt wirbelloser Kleinlebewesen in Fliessgewässern verschiedener Kantone werden den nationalen Datensätzen BDM und NAWA gegenübergestellt. Bis auf wenige Ausnahmen zeigt sich eine auf kantonaler und nationaler Ebene einheitliche Entwicklung: Vor allem die Anzahl pestizidtoleranter Familien und wärmeliebender Arten pro Probenahmestandort nimmt in den letzten Jahrzehnten zu. Mögliche Ursachen dieses Trends sind der Klimawandel sowie eine verbesserte Gewässerqualität.

Identifying sublethal pesticide effects on aquatic organisms is a challenge for environmental risk assessment. Long-term population experiments can help assessing chronic toxicity. However, population experiments are subject to stochasticity (demographic, environmental, and genetic). Therefore, identifying sublethal chronic effects from “noisy” data can be difficult. Model-based analysis can support this process.
We use stochastic, age-structured population models applied to data from long-term population experiments with Daphnia galeata in 1L aquaria with and without chronic pesticide treatments (diazinon and diuron) at sublethal concentrations. Posterior analysis following Bayesian inference of model parameters and states helped choosing an adequate description of life-history characteristics under the specific experimental conditions (a zero-inflated negative binomial distribution for reproduction and mortality without density dependence). For the insecticide treatments, the inferred marginal posterior parameter distributions indicated the need for a mortality rate that increases with time, indicating cumulative chronic toxic effects of diazinon on Daphnia populations. With this study, we demonstrate how stochastic models can be used to infer mechanisms from population data to help identifying sublethal pesticide effects.

In der Schweiz gibt es verschiedene Fisch-Monitoring-Programme. Nun wurden sie erstmals gemeinsam ausgewertet, mit dem Ziel, statistische Zusammenhänge zwischen vom Menschen beeinflussten Umweltfaktoren (Temperatur, landwirtschaftliche Landnutzung, Hydromorphologie, Wanderhindernisse) und dem Vorkommen von Fischen bzw. deren Dichte zu identifizieren. Die Analyse weist darauf hin, dass alle häufigeren Fischgattungen durch diese Umweltfaktoren in ihrem Vorkommen beeinflusst werden, und zwar auf unterschiedliche Weise.

 

Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to quantify how taxa respond to environmental conditions and to predict their distribution. However, the application of SDMs to freshwater fish taxa is complicated by the active dispersal of fish taxa through river networks, and the species- and habitat-dependent observation process (i.e., the sampling method and effort) required to accurately sample their distributions. Many studies have applied presence-absence models (PAMs) to fish taxa, while more recent studies have proposed zero-inflated models (ZIMs) to account for count observations with many zeroes. However, relatively few studies have incorporated the observation process into the model structure, which would facilitate the combination of data from various monitoring programs that differ in their observation process. In this study, we use conceptual models to identify potentially dominant natural and anthropogenic environmental conditions with a direct, mechanistic effect on the distributions of freshwater fish taxa in Switzerland, a region with a large range of environmental conditions, from alpine streams that are mainly affected by hydromorphological alterations to lowland streams in densely populated areas with intensive agricultural land use. Moreover, numerous barriers impede fish migration along the entire river network. Using combined data from two fish monitoring programs in Switzerland, we applied an exhaustive cross-validation procedure to select a set of environmental variables with the highest (out-of-sample) predictive performance for the PAM and ZIM for fish density (individuals/m²) of the seven most prevalent fish taxa (Salmo spp., Cottus spp., Squalius spp., Barbatula spp., Barbus spp., Phoxinus spp., Gobio spp.). We used these variables to develop a PAM and ZIM for each taxon that accounts for differences in sampling methods and sampling effort. We quantified the quality of fit during calibration using all samples and predictive performance during 5-fold cross-validation of each model.
Results show that stream temperature and stream morphology within the accessible habitat commonly appear among the best predictive presence-absence models for multiple taxa. Spatial variables that account for migration barriers and quantify morphological conditions within the accessible habitat were selected for 6 out of 7 taxa. The selected PAMs performed well for all taxa with an intermediate prevalence (10–40%), with an explanatory power () of between 0.32 - 0.37 during calibration using all samples and only minor decreases in explanatory power during cross-validation (= 0.34 – 0.44). As expected, the PAM for the highly prevalent Salmo spp. (91%) failed to predict the few absence data points. By contrast, the ZIM model performed best for Salmo spp., with a standardized likelihood ratio of 1.56. For all other taxa besides Barbus spp. the ZIM models also had likelihood ratios above one, indicating a better predictive performance than the null model. We hope this study stimulates the development and application of fish species distribution models based on prior knowledge of causally linked environmental variables and incorporating observation errors to improve their predictive performance. This can facilitate learning from biomonitoring data to support management.

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) play an important role in retaining organic matter and nutrients but to a lesser extent micropollutants. Therefore, treated wastewater is recognized as a major source of multiple stressors, including complex mixtures of micropollutants. These can potentially affect microbial communities in the receiving water bodies and the ecological functions they provide. In this study, we evaluated in flow-through channels the consequences of an exposure to a mixture of stream water and different percentages of urban WWTP effluent, ranging from 0% to 80%, on the microbial diversity and function of periphyton communities. Assuming that micropollutants exert a selective pressure for tolerant microorganisms within communities, we further examined the periphyton sensitivity to a micropollutant mixture extracted from passive samplers that were immersed in the wastewater effluent. As well, micropollutants in water and in periphyton were comprehensively quantified. Our results show that micropollutants detected in periphyton differed from those found in water, both in term of concentration and composition. Especially photosystem II inhibitors accumulated in periphyton more than other pesticides. Although effects of other substances cannot be excluded, this accumulation may have contributed to the observed higher tolerance of phototrophic communities to micropollutants upon exposure to 30% and 80% of wastewater. On the contrary, no difference in tolerance was observed for heterotrophic communities. Exposure to the gradient of wastewater led to structural differences in both prokaryotic and eukaryotic communities. For instance, the relative abundance of cyanobacteria was higher with increasing percentage of wastewater effluent, whereas the opposite was observed for diatoms. Such results could indicate that differences in community structure do not necessarily lead to higher tolerance. This highlights the need to consider other wastewater constituents such as nutrients and wastewater-derived microorganisms that can modulate community structure and tolerance. By using engineered flow-through channels that mimic to some extent the required field conditions for the development of tolerance in periphyton, our study constitutes a base to investigate the mechanisms underlying the increased tolerance, such as the potential role of microorganisms originating from wastewater effluents, and different treatment options to reduce the micropollutant load in effluents.

A wide knowledge base regarding the ecological preferences of benthic macroinvertebrates is synthesized in public databases. This knowledge can assist in disentangling the influence of multiple environmental factors on the probability of occurrence of macroinvertebrates and in identifying anthropogenic impacts on the macroinvertebrate assemblage. We aimed to examine and extend current knowledge on ecological preferences by confronting it with independent biomonitoring datasets and to assess how the taxonomic resolution of datasets and the prevalence of taxa affects our ability to do so. We used a habitat suitability-based multi-species distribution model (HS-MSDM) and applied Bayesian inference to confront current knowledge (formalized as prior probability distributions) against independent biomonitoring data across rivers in Switzerland. Shifts in the resulting posterior probability distributions relative to the priors indicate a disagreement with the current knowledge of ecological preferences. Ecological preferences for temperature and organic matter had the highest influence on the predicted occurrence of macroinvertebrates in the model, followed by flow velocity, insecticide pollution, and substratum. Three-fold cross-validation tests demonstrated that the HS-MSDM predicted the distribution of taxa with a relative frequency of occurrence between 0.2 and 0.8 considerably better than a model without consideration of environmental factors. However, it was less able to predict the distribution of taxa with a frequency of occurrence <0.1 or >0.9. Nine taxa with a frequency of occurrence between 0.4 and 0.8 were identified as potentially useful bioindicators, given their strong association with the environmental factors in the model. We also identified 29 taxa for which part of the ecological preference data, particularly temperature and flow-velocity preferences, should be re-examined. For river morphology, 18 sensitive and 10 insensitive taxa were identified, although direct and uniquely linked prior knowledge regarding morphology was lacking for all taxa. Phylogenetically derived information on ecological preferences could be integrated and updated to fill gaps in ecological preference databases. However, the taxonomic resolution of the biomonitoring and ecological preference data plays an important role, as we show by identifying families comprising species that respond differently to environmental factors. These results demonstrate the value of conducting biomonitoring at the most detailed taxonomic level possible.

Key decisions in the design of biomonitoring programs include taxonomic resolution, geographic extent, and site selection, each of which can affect our ability to infer human impacts on biodiversity from biomonitoring data. These decisions are constrained by monitoring goals and budget limitations, which may require trade-offs between them. In this study, we use species distribution models (SDMs) to assess the effects of key decisions in biomonitoring design on our ability to infer the effects of natural and anthropogenic environmental conditions on the occurrence of benthic macroinvertebrates in streams. We compared 4 datasets that differ in their site-selection strategy, geographic extent, and taxonomic resolution using data from Swiss federal and cantonal biomonitoring programs. We used individual SDMs with 3-fold cross validation to identify the environmental variables that best predict the probability of taxa occurrence across the datasets. We then used a hierarchical multi-species distribution model (hmSDM) to identify how key aspects of biomonitoring design influence the relative importance of the selected explanatory (predictor) variables in the model as well as the model’s predictive performance. The relative importance of the explanatory variables in the hmSDMs was lowest for the dataset with a grid-based site-selection approach and family-level resolution. An increase in predictive performance was achieved by either using a species-level taxonomic resolution for Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera or by combining different biomonitoring programs at the family level to increase the number of sites and improve the coverage of environmental conditions. Selecting monitoring sites to provide a good coverage of environmental conditions, while also targeting sites with rare combinations of environmental conditions, could further improve biomonitoring program data. Models based on finer taxonomic resolution revealed that widespread families consist of species and genera with different and stronger responses to environmental conditions. However, many families include species that are too rare to allow inference of significant responses to environmental conditions. We show that hmSDMs of stream invertebrates can contribute to the selection of specific taxa for identification at finer taxonomic resolution. This strategy could facilitate the standardization and combination of multiple biomonitoring datasets and improve the identifiability of stream invertebrate responses to environmental conditions in biomonitoring programs.

Surface water quality management requires foresighted decision making regarding long-term investments. It should consider multiple objectives (e.g. related to different pollutants and costs), integrate multiple sources of pollution (point and diffuse sources), and external conditions that change over time (climate, population and land-use changes). Multi-attribute value theory can support such decisions, especially the development of an assessment method. Integrated surface water quality assessment methods including micropollutants are currently lacking or in development in many countries. Important steps for the development of such an immission oriented and integrated surface water quality assessment method are discussed in this paper and exemplified for organic micropollutants. The proposed assessment method goes beyond simple pass-fail criteria for single substances. It provides a continuous assessment on a scale from zero to one based on five color-coded water quality classes and suggestions for the visualization of assessment results. It takes into account the toxicity of the micropollutants and their mixture to aquatic organisms by comparing measured concentrations to environmental quality standards (EQS). The focus of this paper is on aggregation over multiple substances and time. Advantages and disadvantages of different aggregation methods are discussed as well as their implications for practice. The consequences of different aggregation methods are illustrated with didactical examples and by an application of the proposed water quality assessment method to pesticide monitoring data from Switzerland. Recommendations are provided that account for the purpose of the assessment. Furthermore, the paper illustrates how the proposed method can facilitate dealing with uncertainty and a transparent communication of monitoring results to support water quality management decisions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are often criticised for lacking explicit linkage to ecological concepts. We aim to improve the ecological basis of SDMs by integrating prior knowledge about ecological preferences of organisms. Additionally, we aim to support a systematic, data-driven review of such prior knowledge by confronting it with independent monitoring data using Bayesian inference. We developed a series of multi-species distribution models (MSDMs) with increasing complexity to predict the probability of occurrence of taxa at sampling sites based on habitat suitability functions that are parameterized with prior ecological knowledge. We subsequently assessed the models` predictive performance with 3-fold cross-validation. So far, if ecological preferences or functional traits have been used in SDMs, they were mainly used as fixed inputs without considering their uncertainty. We take the additional step of considering uncertainty about preference parameters by including them as uncertain prior information that is subsequently updated with Bayesian inference. We apply the series of models in a case study on macroinvertebrates in Swiss streams. We analyse differences in the quality of fit, changes in predictive performance, and the potential to learn about the parameters from the data. We consider ecological preferences for natural and human modified environmental factors including temperature, flow velocity, organic matter concentration, insecticide pollution, and substratum. Results indicate that updating prior knowledge on ecological preferences with Bayesian inference, rather than using it as fixed input, improves model fit and predictive performance. For example, the predictive performance measured by the deviance for validation data improves by 17 % and the explanatory power increases 3.8 times from a model that treats ecological preferences as fixed scores to a model that treats them as uncertain parameters. The spatial distribution of many taxa, including rare taxa with frequencies of occurrence down to about 5 %, which are difficult to model with SDMs that do not consider prior information, can be captured by the new models. Integrating prior knowledge as uncertain parameters in a Bayesian framework establishes ecological interpretable links between taxa and their environment and supports a systematic revision and complementation of databases on ecological preferences, even in case of poor or missing prior knowledge. Model outputs need to be carefully interpreted by modellers and experts on ecological preferences. Increased exchange between these research fields will benefit further integration of ecological preferences into SDMs.

Aim: Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study geographic distributions of taxa in response to natural and anthropogenic environmental conditions. For a community, common approaches include fitting individual SDMs (iSDMs) to all taxa or directly modelling community properties such as richness. However, the parameters of iSDMs are difficult to identify for rare taxa, and community properties do not reveal taxon‐specific responses. Individual models can be combined into a hierarchical multispecies distribution model (mSDM) that constrains taxon‐specific parameters according to overarching community parameters, or a joint model (jSDM) in which interdependencies between taxa are jointly inferred. We compare how individual, hierarchical multispecies and joint SDMs differ in quality of fit, explanatory power and predictive performance, and analyse how these properties depend on the prevalence of taxa.
Taxa: Presence–absence observations of 245 benthic macroinvertebrate taxa identified at a mixed taxonomic resolution.
Location: Four hundred and ninety‐two sites in rivers throughout Switzerland.
Methods: Individual, hierarchical and joint hierarchical generalized linear models (GLM) were developed for all taxa. Parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood estimation or Bayesian inference with Hamiltonian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. Predictive performance was assessed with cross‐validation. In addition, the predicted family and species richness of the models was compared with a GLM for richness.
Results: Individual models show a slightly higher quality of fit largely due to overfitting for rare taxa. The mSDM achieves a similar quality of fit and explanatory power, mitigates overfitting for rare taxa and considerably improves predictive performance over the whole community. The joint models further improve the quality of fit, but decrease predictive performance and increase predictive uncertainty.
Main conclusions: We show that even a relatively simple mSDM combines many of the analytical capabilities of iSDMs and improves predictive performance. Increasingly complex mSDMs and jSDMs provide additional analytical possibilities, but depending on the data and research questions, different levels of complexity may be appropriate.

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) requires an accurate representation of the preferences of decision-makers, for instance in the form of a multi-attribute value function. Typically, additivity or other stringent assumptions about the preferences are made to facilitate elicitation by assuming a simple parametric form. When relaxing such assumptions, parameters cannot be elicited easily with standard methods. We present a novel approach for identifying multi-attribute value functions which can have any shape. As preference information indifference statements are used that can be elicited by trade-off questions. Instead of asking one indifference statement for each pair of attributes, we ask for multiple trade-offs at different points in the attribute space. This allows inferring parameters of complex value functions despite the simplicity of the preference statements. Parameters are estimated by taking into account preference and elicitation uncertainty with a probabilistic model. Statistical inference supports identifying the most adequate preference model out of several candidate models through quantifying the uncertainty and assessing the need for non-additivity. The approach is elaborated for determining value functions by hierarchical aggregation. We apply it to an assessment of the ecological state of rivers, which is used to support environmental management decisions in Switzerland. Preference models of four experts were quantified, confirming the feasibility of the approach and the relevance of considering non-additive functions. The method suggests a promising direction for improving the representation of preferences.

Freshwater ecosystems are increasingly under threat as they are confronted with multiple anthropogenic impairments. This calls for comprehensive management strategies to counteract, or even prevent, long-term impacts on habitats and their biodiversity, as well as on their ecological functions and services. The basis for the efficient management and effective conservation of any ecosystem is sufficient knowledge on the state of the system and its response to external influence factors. In freshwater ecosystems, state information is currently drawn from ecological assessments at the reach or site scale. While these assessments are essential, they are not sufficient to assess the expected outcome of different river restoration strategies, because they do not account for important characteristics of the whole river network, such as habitat connectivity or headwater reachability. This is of particular importance for the spatial prioritization of restoration measures. River restoration could be supported best by integrative catchment-scale ecological assessments that are sensitive to the spatial arrangement of river reaches and barriers. Assessments at this scale are of increasing interest to environmental managers and conservation practitioners to prioritize restoration measures or to locate areas worth protecting. We present an approach based on decision support methods that integrates abiotic and biotic ecological assessments at the reach-scale and aggregates them spatially to describe the ecological state of entire catchments. This aggregation is based on spatial criteria that represent important ecological catchment properties, such as fish migration potential, resilience, fragmentation and habitat diversity in a spatially explicit way.We identify the most promising assessment criteria from different alternatives based on theoretical considerations and a comparison with biological indicators. Potential applications are discussed, particularly for supporting the strategic, long-term planning and spatial prioritization of restoration measures.

Der Schweizer Makrozoobenthos-Index IBCH geniesst für die Zustandsbewertung von Fliessgewässern bei den Kantonen eine hohe Akzeptanz. In den letzten zehn Jahren zeigte sich aber, dass nicht nur anthropogene Faktoren die Bewertung beeinflussen, sondern auch natürliche wie die Höhenlage oder die biogeografische Region. Basierend auf einer Analyse der bisherigen Ergebnisse wurde der IBCH_2019 entwickelt, der diese Mängel korrigiert und eine plausiblere Bewertung der Gewässer erlaubt.

Mit einem statistischen Modell wurden schweizweite Monitoringdaten über die Zusammensetzung von Makrozoobenthosgemeinschaften in Schweizer Fliessgewässern ausgewertet. Temperatur, Landwirtschaft und Hydromorphologie wurden dabei als wichtige Einflussfaktoren im Modell identifiziert. Arten aus der gleichen Familie reagieren in vielen Fällen unterschiedlich auf natürliche und menschliche Umwelteinflüsse. Neben der taxonomischen Auflösung wirkt sich auch die Stellenauswahl auf die Aussagekraft der Resultate aus.

Understanding and predicting the ecological consequences of different management alternatives is becoming increasingly important to support environmental management decisions. Ecological models could contribute to such predictions, but in the past this was often not the case. Ecological models are often developed within research projects but are rarely used for practical applications. In this synthesis paper, we discuss how to strengthen the role of ecological modeling in supporting environmental management decisions with a focus on methodological aspects. We address mainly ecological modellers but also potential users of modeling results. Various modeling approaches can be used to predict the response of ecosystems to anthropogenic interventions, including mechanistic models, statistical models, and machine learning approaches. Regardless of the chosen approach, we outline how to better align the modeling to the decision making process, and identify six requirements that we believe are important to increase the usefulness of ecological models for management support, especially if management decisions need to be justified to the public. These cover: (i) a mechanistic understanding regarding causality, (ii) alignment of model input and output with the management decision, (iii) appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions, (iv) uncertainty quantification, (v) sufficient predictive performance, and (vi) transparent communication. We discuss challenges and synthesize suggestions for addressing these points.

In densely populated areas, surface waters are affected by many sources of pollution. Besides classical pollutants like nutrients and organic matter that lead to eutrophication, micropollutants from various point- and non-point sources are getting more attention by water quality managers. For cost-effective management an integrated assessment is needed that takes into account all relevant pollutants and all sources of pollution within a catchment. Due to the difficulty of identifying and quantifying sources of pollution and the need for considering long-term changes in boundary conditions, typically substantial uncertainty exists about the consequences of potential management alternatives to improve surface water quality. We therefore need integrated assessment methods that are able to deal with multiple objectives and account for various sources of uncertainty.
This paper aims to contribute to integrated, prospective water management by combining a) multi-criteria decision support methods to structure the decision process and quantify preferences, b) integrated water quality modelling to predict consequences of management alternatives accounting for uncertainty, and c) scenario planning to consider uncertainty from potential future climate and socio-economic developments, to evaluate the future cost-effectiveness of water quality management alternatives at the catchment scale. It aims to demonstrate the usefulness of multi-attribute value functions for water quality assessment to i) propagate uncertainties throughout the entire assessment procedure, ii) facilitate the aggregation of multiple objectives while avoiding discretization errors when using categories for sub-objectives, iii) transparently communicate the results. We show how to use such multi-attribute value functions for model-based decision support in water quality management.
We showcase the procedure for the Mönchaltorfer Aa catchment on the Swiss Plateau. We evaluate ten different water quality management alternatives, including current practice, that tackle macro- and micropollutants from a wide spectrum of agricultural and urban sources. We evaluate costs and water quality effects of the alternatives under four different socio-economic scenarios for the horizon 2050 under present and future climate projections and visualize their uncertainty. While the performance of alternatives is catchment specific, the methods can be transferred to other places and other management situations. Results confirm the need for cross-sectoral coordination of different management actions and interdisciplinary collaboration to support the development of prospective strategies to improve water quality.

The design and evaluation of solutions for integrated surface water quality management requires an integrated modelling approach. Integrated models have to be comprehensive enough to cover the aspects relevant for management decisions, allowing for mapping of larger-scale processes such as climate change to the regional and local contexts. Besides this, models have to be sufficiently simple and fast to apply proper methods of uncertainty analysis, covering model structure deficits and error propagation through the chain of sub-models. Here, we present a new integrated catchment model satisfying both conditions. The conceptual "iWaQa" model was developed to support the integrated management of small streams. It can be used to predict traditional water quality parameters, such as nutrients and a wide set of organic micropollutants (plant and material protection products), by considering all major pollutant pathways in urban and agricultural environments. Due to its simplicity, the model allows for a full, propagative analysis of predictive uncertainty, including certain structural and input errors. The usefulness of the model is demonstrated by predicting future surface water quality in a small catchment with mixed land use in the Swiss Plateau. We consider climate change, population growth or decline, socio-economic development, and the implementation of management strategies to tackle urban and agricultural point and non-point sources of pollution. Our results indicate that input and model structure uncertainties are the most influential factors for certain water quality parameters. In these cases model uncertainty is already high for present conditions. Nevertheless, accounting for today's uncertainty makes management fairly robust to the foreseen range of potential changes in the next decades. The assessment of total predictive uncertainty allows for selecting management strategies that show small sensitivity to poorly known boundary conditions. The identification of important sources of uncertainty helps to guide future monitoring efforts and pinpoints key indicators, whose evolution should be closely followed to adapt management. The possible impact of climate change is clearly demonstrated by water quality substantially changing depending on single climate model chains. However, when all climate trajectories are combined, the human land use and management decisions have a larger influence on water quality against a time horizon of 2050 in the study.

Die Makrozoobenthos-Erhebungsmethode des Modul-Stufen-Konzepts (MSK) wird breit angewandt. Wie eine Umfrage zeigt, entspricht sie überwiegend den Erwartungen der Anwender und Anwenderinnen. Um die Verlässlichkeit zu steigern, bedarf es jedoch einer Weiterentwicklung der Methode. So soll die Methode künftig den natürlichen Hintergrund miteinbeziehen, weitergehende Indices sollen auf Schweizer Daten getestet und die Ergebnisse publiziert werden.

Predicting the composition and dynamics of communities is a challenging but useful task to efficiently support ecosystem management. Community ecology has developed a number of promising theories, including food webs, metabolic theory, ecological stoichiometry and environmental filtering. Their joint implementation in a mechanistic modeling framework should help us to bring community ecology to a new level by improving its predictive abilities. One of the challenges lies in the proper consideration of model uncertainty.
In this paper we contribute to this challenging task by modeling the temporal dynamics of macroinvertebrate communities in a stream subjected to hydropeaking in Switzerland. To this end, we extended the mechanistic model Streambugs regarding flood-induced drift-processes and the use of trait information to define performance filters.
Model predictions without any calibration were in the right order of magnitude but did not reflect the dynamics of most of the invertebrate taxa well. Bayesian inference drastically improved the model fit. It revealed that a large share of total model output uncertainty can be attributed to observation errors, which exceeded model parameter uncertainty. Observed and simulated community-aggregated traits helped to identify and understand model deficits. The combination of different ecological theories and trait information in a single mechanistic modeling framework combined with Bayesian inference can thus help to predict responses of communities to environmental changes, which can support ecosystem management.

While the number of river restoration projects is increasing, studies on their success or failure relative to expectations are still rare. Only a few decision support methodologies and integrative methods for evaluating the ecological status of rivers are used in river restoration projects, thereby limiting informed management decisions in restoration planning as well as success control. Moreover, studies quantifying river restoration effects are often based on the assessment of a single organism group, and the effects on terrestrial communities are often neglected. In addition, potential effects of water quality or hydrological degradation are often not considered for the evaluation of restoration projects.
We used multi-attribute value theory to re-formulate an existing river assessment protocol and extend it to a more comprehensive, integrated ecological assessment program. We considered habitat conditions, water quality regarding nutrients, micropollutants and heavy metals, and five instream and terrestrial organism groups (fish, benthic invertebrates, aquatic vegetation, ground beetles and riparian vegetation). The physical, chemical and biological states of the rivers were assessed separately and combined to value the overall ecological state.
The assessment procedure was then applied to restored and unrestored sites at two Swiss rivers to test its feasibility in quantifying the effect of river restoration. Uncertainty in observations was taken into account and propagated through the assessment framework to evaluate the significance of differences between the ecological states of restored and unrestored reaches. In the restored sites, we measured a higher width variability of the river, as well as a higher width of the riparian zone and a higher richness of organism groups. According to the ecological assessment, the river morphology and the biological states were significantly better at the restored sites, with the largest differences detected for ground beetles and fish communities, followed by benthic invertebrates and riparian vegetation. The state of the aquatic vegetation was slightly lower at the restored sites. According to our assessment, the presence of invasive plant species counteracted the potential ecological gain. Water quality could be a causal factor contributing to the absence of larger improvements.
Overall, we found significantly better biological and physical states, and integrated ecological states at the restored sites. Even in the absence of comprehensive before-after data, based on the similarity of the reaches before restoration and mechanistic biological knowledge, this can be safely interpreted as a causal consequence of restoration. An integrative perspective across aquatic and riparian organism groups was important to assess the biological effects, because organism groups responded differently to restoration. In addition, the potential deteriorating effect of water quality demonstrates the importance of integrated planning for the reduction of morphological, water quality and hydrological degradation.

1. Habitat destruction, biological invasions and water quality deterioration are serious threats to native communities and can lead to modifications in community composition and structure, and in ecosystem function.
2. To predict the consequences of river restoration, biological invasions and water quality change in the taxonomic composition of macroinvertebrate communities in rivers, we extended the mechanistic model Streambugs, which describes growth, respiration and death of interacting taxa under given environmental conditions.
3. The model parameterised with prior knowledge on macroinvertebrate traits had already a reasonable explanatory power for data from restored and unrestored sites in two Swiss rivers. As anticipated, the explanatory power of the model was increased further by incorporation of learning from observations through Bayesian inference. The predictive application of the model to changes in water quality and invasions by alien species indicated the importance of integrative planning of management measures: although invasive species are predicted to be able to colonise restored and unrestored sites and replace native species, both invasion of alien species and subsequent exclusion of native taxa is predicted to be reduced when water quality improves.
4. The unavoidable simplification in the mathematical description of complex interactions in the macroinvertebrate community results in predictions that are uncertain. Our modelling techniques make the best attempt to quantify this uncertainty. Despite the uncertainty that always calls for more research, this study makes a considerable step towards improving our understanding of community structure and supporting river management through mechanistic, predictive modelling of macroinvertebrate communities in rivers under changing environmental conditions.

Modeling community dynamics of aquatic invertebrates is an important but challenging task, in particular in ecotoxicological risk assessment. Systematic parameter estimation and rigorous assessment of model uncertainty are often lacking in such applications. We applied the mechanistic food web model Streambugs to investigate the temporal development of the macroinvertebrate community in an ecotoxicological mesocosm experiment with pulsed contaminations with the insecticide thiacloprid. We used Bayesian inference to estimate parameters and their uncertainty. Approx. 85% of all experimental observations lie within the 90% uncertainty intervals indicating reasonably good fits of the calibrated model. However, a validation with independent data was not possible due to lacking data. Investigation of vital rates and limiting factors in the model yielded insights into recovery dynamics. Inclusion of the emergence process and sub-lethal effects turned out to be potentially relevant model extensions. Measurements of food source dynamics, individual body size (classes), and additional knowledge on sub-lethal effects would support more accurate modeling. This application of a process-based, ecotoxicological community model with uncertainty assessment by Bayesian inference increased our process understanding of toxicant effects in macroinvertebrate communities and helped identifying potential improvements in model structure and experimental design.

1. The community assembly of macroinvertebrates in streams depends on the regional taxon pool, dispersal limitations, local habitat conditions and biotic interactions. By integrating existing knowledge about these processes from theoretical ecology in a mechanistic model, we can test our mechanistic understanding and disentangle multiple stressor effects on community assembly.
2. To assess to which degree we can predict the community composition of macroinvertebrates, we integrated these processes in the mechanistic food web model Streambugs and tested it on 36 sites in the Glatt catchment on the Swiss plateau. The model predicts the observation probability of taxa from a regional taxon pool at each site taking into account uncertain knowledge on parameters, environmental conditions at the sites and sampling errors.
3. We use allometric scaling according to the metabolic theory of ecology, ecological stoichiometry and autecological data from trait databases that include the current knowledge on habitat requirements of the different taxa to parameterize their growth, respiration and death.
4. Without any calibration, for the majority of taxa at the 36 sites, the difference between the observed and predicted relative frequency of occurrence is <50% when taking prior parameter uncertainty and the uncertainty of environmental conditions into account (79% compared to 61% for the random model). By calibrating taxon-specific modification factors for the growth rate, we can increase the model compliance with data.
5. Analysing the influence of different ecological traits and their corresponding environmental influence factors reveals that feeding types and sensitivity to organic toxicants contribute most to the predictive capabilities of the model in this catchment. The influence of temperature stress and oxygen depletion due to pollution with organic matter on the community composition is negligible. These results confirm our expectations regarding the most important water quality issues of streams on the Swiss plateau. Current velocity plays an intermediate role in this model application.
6. The contribution of the feeding types to model performance highlights the importance of taking biotic interactions (competition for food sources and predator–prey interactions) into account to predict the coexistence of taxa. Better knowledge of the actual feeding links in the food web (e.g. from gut content or stable isotope data) that are currently inferred from feeding types, body size and food availability could further improve this approach.

Water policies are often evaluated primarily on the basis of their financial (budgetary) costs, as these can be assessed relatively easily. The calculation of all costs and benefits, including second-order indirect effects on sectors and non-priced environmental effects, often also referred to as the broader social costs and benefits, is a more difficult task. Social cost-benefit analysis is a widely applied method for evaluating public water policies, since government interventions are often related to the provision of public goods, having an impact on society as a whole. Such impacts should consequently be valued and evaluated from a societal perspective, not the perspective of the investor only such as a central or local government or a private company. Restored or 'natural' river corridors typically have the potential to provide a wide range of ecosystem services. It is the wider social value attached to these ecosystem services besides their ecological value that is often missing in information supply supporting river restoration policy and decision-making.
The report provides an overview of existing guidelines and manuals related to the assessment of costs and benefits of river restoration. Although there exist many costbenefit analysis handbooks, there are not many related specifically to river restoration. This report aims to fill this gap, and focuses on the specific characteristics of the estimation of costs and benefits related to river restoration. The report discusses the classification and assessment of costs and benefits of river restoration, and develops a benefits transfer approach that can be used to assess benefits when it is not possible to carry out primary valuation research. Key methodological issues in a CBA of river restoration are identified, discussed and illustrated. The report provides a number of practical recommendations to practitioners.

Analyses of costs and benefits require the prediction of the effects of restoration measures and the quantification of societal values. Both of these estimates are uncertain. In this report, some of the key issues related to the assessment, description and quantification of uncertainty are discussed and guidelines are provided for considering uncertainty. This report provides a brief overview on the representation and quantification of uncertainty in scientific prediction followed by examples of typical risks associated with river restoration that could lead to unintended, adverse effects and in more detail, how uncertainty can be considered in CEA/CBA and in MCDA.
There are two important sources of uncertainty to consider in environmental management in general, and in particular for river restoration:
• Uncertainty about scientific predictions of outcomes.
Depending on alternatives, this requires prediction and uncertainty estimation of the behavior of a natural system, natural-technical system, or even of a combined natural-technical-socio-economic system (e.g. in case of measures that include incentives to some of the affected stakeholders). In particular, one has to consider the potential for adverse outcomes as discussed in chapter 3.
• Uncertainty about the preferences of the society elicited from inquiries or stakeholders.
In addition to the difficulties of the stakeholders to be aware of their own preferences and to be able to quantify them, this also includes their risk attitude (how uncertainty about the outcomes affects their preferences). [...]

Environmental decision support intends to use the best available scientific knowledge to help decision makers find and evaluate management alternatives. The goal of this process is to achieve the best fulfillment of societal objectives. This requires a careful analysis of (i) how scientific knowledge can be represented and quantified, (ii) how societal preferences can be described and elicited, and (iii) how these concepts can best be used to support communication with authorities, politicians, and the public in environmental management. The goal of this paper is to discuss key requirements for a conceptual framework to address these issues and to suggest how these can best be met. We argue that a combination of probability theory and scenario planning with multi-attribute utility theory fulfills these requirements, and discuss adaptations and extensions of these theories to improve their application for supporting environmental decision making. With respect to (i) we suggest the use of intersubjective probabilities, if required extended to imprecise probabilities, to describe the current state of scientific knowledge. To address (ii), we emphasize the importance of value functions, in addition to utilities, to support decisions under risk. We discuss the need for testing "non-standard" value aggregation techniques, the usefulness of flexibility of value functions regarding attribute data availability, the elicitation of value functions for sub-objectives from experts, and the consideration of uncertainty in value and utility elicitation. With respect to (iii), we outline a well-structured procedure for transparent environmental decision support that is based on a clear separation of scientific prediction and societal valuation. We illustrate aspects of the suggested methodology by its application to river management in general and with a small, didactical case study on spatial river rehabilitation prioritization.

We present a novel approach for practically tackling uncertainty in preference elicitation and predictive modeling to support complex multi-criteria decisions based on multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT). A simplified two-step elicitation procedure consisting of an online survey and face-to-face interviews is followed by an extensive uncertainty analysis. This covers uncertainty of the preference components (marginal value and utility functions, hierarchical aggregation functions, aggregation parameters) and the attribute predictions. Context uncertainties about future socio-economic developments are captured by combining MAUT with scenario planning. We perform a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to assess the contribution of single uncertain preference parameters to the uncertainty of the ranking of alternatives. This is exemplified for sustainable water infrastructure planning in a case study in Switzerland. We compare 11 water supply alternatives ranging from conventional water supply systems to novel technologies and management schemes regarding 44 objectives. Their performance is assessed for four future scenarios and 10 stakeholders from different backgrounds and decision-making levels. Despite uncertainty in the ranking of alternatives, potential best and worst solutions could be identified. We demonstrate that a priori assumptions such as linear value functions or additive aggregation can result in misleading recommendations, unless thoroughly checked during preference elicitation and modeling. We suggest GSA to focus elicitation on most sensitive preference parameters. Our GSA results indicate that output uncertainty can be considerably reduced by additional elicitation of few parameters, e.g. the overall risk attitude and aggregation functions at higher-level nodes. Here, rough value function elicitation was sufficient, thereby substantially reducing elicitation time.

Using macroinvertebrates as ecological indicators for different stressors has a long tradition. However, when applied to field data, one often observes correlations between different macroinvertebrate indices that can be attributed to both correlations of stressors and inherent correlations due to the sensitivity of taxa to different stressors. Ignoring the source of any given correlation leads to ambiguous conclusions about the impact of different stressors.
Here, we demonstrate how to distinguish the causes of correlation by means of Monte Carlo simulations. We assessed to which degree trait-based indices are stressor-specific and whether this depends on the pool of taxa and its taxonomic resolution. Therefore, we (1) analysed the frequencies of "sensitive" and "insensitive" taxa for pairwise combinations of different indices, (2) analysed the inherent correlation of indices with random samples from different taxon pools derived from field samples and from a complete species list of a whole ecoregion, and (3) compared this inherent correlation with the actual correlation of the field samples. We exemplified this approach by analysing two existing indices (SPEAR_pesticides, Saprobic Index) and new indices for temperature, flow and pH stress. We used these new indices to illustrate our approach while in-depth testing of their applicability was not the focus of our study. < BR/> We found strong correlations between several indices in our study area at the Swiss Plateau. The probability that this correlation is only due to inherent correlation in the taxa sensitivities was low (maximum of 0.34). The problem of inherent correlation between indices is more severe for the smaller taxon pool with lower taxonomic resolution.
Correlation in the sensitivity of different taxa to different stressors leads to an inherent correlation in trait-based indices, which weakens their explanatory power. Our results highlight the importance of correlation analyses when using trait-based indices to guide ecosystem-management, especially in regions with reduced biodiversity.

1. Monitoring anthropogenic impacts is essential for managing and conserving ecosystems, yet current biomonitoring approaches lack the tools required to deal with the effects of stressors on species and their interactions in complex natural systems.
2. Ecological networks (trophic or mutualistic) can offer new insights into ecosystem degradation, adding value to current taxonomically constrained schemes. We highlight some examples to show how new network approaches can be used to interpret ecological responses.
3. Synthesis and applications. Augmenting routine biomonitoring data with interaction data derived from the literature, complemented with ground-truthed data from direct observations where feasible, allows us to begin to characterise large numbers of ecological networks across environmental gradients. This process can be accelerated by adopting emerging technologies and novel analytical approaches, enabling biomonitoring to move beyond simple pass/fail schemes and to address the many ecological responses that can only be understood from a network-based perspective.

Ecological assessment requires the integration of many physical, chemical, and/or biological quality elements. The choice of the aggregation method of such partial assessments into an overall assessment can considerably affect the assessment outcome – an issue that has been controversially discussed within the scientific community for the last decade. Current practice often considers only two different aggregation methods, the weighted arithmetic mean (additive aggregation) and the one-out, all-out method (minimum aggregation). However, both have important drawbacks. Additive aggregation compensates a bad status of one quality element by a number of elements featuring good status. Minimum aggregation can lead to overly pessimistic assessment results, since only the quality element in the worst status is considered. Here, we introduce a toolbox containing current and new aggregation methods, demonstrate and discuss their properties with simple, didactical examples, and suggest in which situations best to use them. Then, we illustrate the consequences of selected aggregation schemes for ecological river assessment with the case study of the Swiss Modular Concept of stream assessment (SMC), which we apply to ten river reaches in the Mönchaltdorfer Aa catchment in Switzerland. To be able to do so, we used multi-criteria decision analysis, i.e., multi-attribute value theory, to arrange the SMC quality elements into an objectives hierarchy, and to translate their individual assessments into value functions. Our case study revealed that choosing the most appropriate aggregation method particularly matters, if objectives with significantly different qualities are aggregated. We argue that redundant objectives (i.e., quality elements), often found at the lower levels of the objectives hierarchy, should best be aggregated additively allowing for compensation to increase the statistical significance of the results. Further, we suggest that complementary sub-objectives that often occur at higher levels may be optimally aggregated with a mixture of additive and minimum aggregation. Such a mixed method will allow some compensation, but nevertheless penalize for very bad states. Since here we compare commonly used aggregation methods with some which we believe have never been discussed in an assessment context before, our study concurrently informs ecological assessment in theory and in practice.

Environmental modeling often requires combining prior knowledge with information obtained from data. The robust Bayesian approach makes it possible to consider ambiguity in this prior knowledge. Describing such ambiguity using sets of probability distributions defined by the Density Ratio Class has important conceptual advantages over alternative robust formulations. Earlier studies showed that the Density Ratio Class is invariant under Bayesian inference and marginalization. We prove that (i) the Density Ratio Class is also invariant under propagation through deterministic models, whereas (ii) predictions of a stochastic model with parameters defined by a Density Ratio Class are embedded in a Density Ratio Class. These invariance properties make it possible to describe sequential learning and prediction under a unified framework. We developed numerical algorithms to minimize the additional computational burden relative to the use of single priors. Practical feasibility of these methods is demonstrated by their application to a simple ecological model.

We examined the influence of land-use, habitat, and water quality on the spatial distribution of aquatic macroinvertebrates in two human-dominated catchments in the Swiss Plateau (Gürbe, Mönchaltorfer Aa). Land-use in the Gürbe catchment was dominated by agriculture, whereas urban land-use was more common in the Mönchaltorfer Aa. Study sites in each catchment were characterized using measures of local habitat conditions, water quality parameters including water temperature, and organic matter resources. A strong longitudinal gradient in temperature, conductivity and nitrogen was evident among sites in the Gürbe catchment, although sites on a main tributary had a strong agricultural signature and deviated from this pattern. Percentage agricultural land-use in the Gürbe was strongly correlated with algal biomass and the water quality PCA axes associated with conductivity, nitrogen (axis-1) and temperature (axis-3). Spatial grouping of sites by water quality was less evident in the Mönchaltorfer Aa, except for a strong signal by wastewater treatment plant effluents and partial differences between upper and lower basin sites. Percentage forest and agricultural land-use in the Mönchaltorfer Aa were correlated with water quality PCA axis-2, being associated with phosphorus and temperature. Macroinvertebrate densities, taxonomic richness, and axis-1 from a non-metric multidimensional scaling analysis (NMDS) of taxonomic composition were significantly correlated with water quality PCA axis-1 in the Gürbe catchment. Here, macroinvertebrate densities and NMDS axis-1 scores based on taxon relative abundances and densities were correlated with land-use features. Spatial distances between sites also were related to site differences in macroinvertebrates, reflecting the strong longitudinal environmental gradient in the Gürbe. Taxonomic differences between water quality PCA site groups were less pronounced in the Mönchaltorfer Aa, although differences were significant for trichopterans, ephemeropterans, chironomids, gastropods and coleopterans. Here, NMDS axis-1 based on taxon relative abundances and densities was correlated with forest land-use. Spatial distances between sites were not evident in macroinvertebrate site differences, reflecting the less pronounced spatial and longitudinal patterns in environmental attributes in this catchment. Our results support the hypothesis that spatial distributions of macroinvertebrates are related to spatial relationships among environmental attributes like land-use, habitat, and water quality in human-dominated catchments that depend on river network complexity, a habitat-filtering template in line with ecological niche theory.

River monitoring and assessment programs are important tools to quantify the condition of river ecosystems, identify deficits, and provide preliminary indication of how to improve them. But, they are limited in delivering comparable assessment results across national or transnational borders, aggregating site-specific assessments into broader scale assessments, and supporting river management decisions. We present a multi-criteria decision analysis approach for improving the comparability of ecological assessment methods of different origin and for combining these assessments into a joint procedure. The approach consists of seven consecutive steps. The most central ones concern the hierarchical allocation of ecological assessment endpoints, and the harmonization of the scoring procedure of attributes (ecological indicators or assets) to a common scale from 0 to 1. We demonstrate the approach integrating three programs developed to assess the hydromorphological river condition in Switzerland, Germany, and the USA. In our example, the integrated assessment produces comparable results for the whole range from natural to impacted rivers, while data continuity with original assessments was maintained. Our approach provides a common assessment standard due to the definition of the minimum amount of information required, is flexible regarding measurement and assessment endpoints, and bridges the gap between river quality assessment and management.

Formal methods of decision analysis can help to structure a decision making process and to communicate reasons for decisions transparently. Objectives hierarchies and associated value and utility functions are useful instruments for supporting such decision making processes by structuring and quantifying the preferences of decision makers or stakeholders. Common multi-attribute decision analysis software products support such decision making processes but they can often not represent complex preference structures and visualize uncertainty induced by uncertain predictions of the consequences of decision alternatives. To stimulate strengthening these aspects in decision support processes, we propose a set of visualization tools and provide a software package for constructing, evaluating and visualizing value and utility functions. In these tools we emphasize flexibility in value aggregation schemes and consideration and communication of prediction uncertainty. The use of these tools is demonstrated with an illustrative example of river management decision support.

For the first time, we combine concepts of theoretical food web modeling, the metabolic theory of ecology, and ecological stoichiometry with the use of functional trait databases to predict the coexistence of invertebrate taxa in streams. We developed a mechanistic model that describes growth, death, and respiration of different taxa dependent on various environmental influence factors to estimate survival or extinction. Parameter and input uncertainty is propagated to model results. Such a model is needed to test our current quantitative understanding of ecosystem structure and function and to predict effects of anthropogenic impacts and restoration efforts. The model was tested using macroinvertebrate monitoring data from a catchment of the Swiss Plateau. Even without fitting model parameters, the model is able to represent key patterns of the coexistence structure of invertebrates at sites varying in external conditions (litter input, shading, water quality). This confirms the suitability of the model concept. More comprehensive testing and resulting model adaptations will further increase the predictive accuracy of the model.

In the absence of model deficiencies, simulation results at the correct parameter values lead to an unbiased description of observed data with remaining deviations due to observation errors only. However, this ideal cannot be reached in the practice of environmental modeling, because the required simplified representation of the complex reality by the model and errors in model input lead to errors that are reflected in biased model output. This leads to two related problems: First, ignoring bias of output in the statistical model description leads to bias in parameter estimates, model predictions and, in particular, in the quantification of their uncertainty. Second, as there is no objective choice of how much bias to accept in which output variable, it is not possible to design an “objective” model calibration procedure. The first of these problems has been addressed by introducing a statistical (Bayesian) description of bias, the second by suggesting the use of multiobjective calibration techniques that cannot easily be used for uncertainty analysis. We merge the ideas of these two approaches by using the prior of the statistical bias description to quantify the importance of multiple calibration objectives. This leads to probabilistic inference and prediction while still taking multiple calibration objectives into account. The ideas and technical details of the suggested approach are outlined and a didactical example as well as an application to environmental data are provided to demonstrate its practical feasibility and computational efficiency.

Wirbellose Kleinlebewesen haben sehr verschiedene Ansprüche an ihren Lebensraum. Die Eawag entwickelt ein Computermodell, um die Zusammensetzung der Lebensgemeinschaften am Flussgrund vorherzusagen. Das Modell soll in Zukunft integratives Flussmanagement unterstützen und mögliche Konsequenzen verschiedener Managementmassnahmen oder des Klimawandels vorhersagen.

Decisions in environmental management can be challenging, amongst other things, due to two major sources of uncertainty. Predictions of consequences of different management alternatives can be very uncertain. Furthermore, uncertainty exists regarding the subjective preferences of decision makers and stakeholders. For a transparent decision process it is important to disentangle these different elements and the related sources of uncertainty by separating the prediction of consequences from their valuation. Predictions of consequences should be estimated as objectively as possible based on the current state of knowledge; the preference functions which are used to valuate these consequences must be elicited carefully to reflect the subjective preferences of each stakeholder. We incorporate uncertainty in decision support by applying the multi-attribute value and utility theory. We propagate uncertainty in the prediction of consequences to the valuation (numerically implemented by Monte Carlo simulation) and incorporate the risk attitude of the stakeholders to discriminate between uncertain alternatives. Furthermore, we address uncertainties inherent in the model of the subjective preference structure by sensitivity analysis to evaluate the robustness of model results against a variation in parameters of the preference model. We illustrate this procedure with a case study on the improvement of water quality in a river catchment of the Swiss Plateau. Different management options to reduce point and non-point sources will be evaluated in this study. For deriving predictions of outcomes, expert knowledge as well as mathematical models can be used. The case study is integrated in a framework for multi-criteria water management (MCWM), which allows us to use existing assessment procedures to evaluate the ecological status of aquatic ecosystems.

Decision making in public and political contexts can be complex. Multi-attribute value/utility theory (MAVT/MAUT) can support such decision processes by providing a transparent framework that helps focusing on objectives and corresponding degrees of achievement by different alternatives.
Eliciting preferences with MAVT/MAUT can be time consuming and cognitively challenging. Therefore, it might not be feasible to elicit full preference functions with standard methods. To deal with this problem, we suggest a simplified elicitation procedure that combines (a) the elicitation of values instead of utilities at lower-levels of the objectives hierarchy and conversion to utilities to consider risk attitudes at appropriate higher levels, (b) the use of linear value functions for sub-objectives with minor effects on the overall value, and (c) sensitivity analyses to check the robustness of results regarding these assumptions and the elicitation process in general. Furthermore, we developed a modified Swing procedure ("Reversed Swing2) to elicit weights for cases in which the hypothetical alternatives of the conventional Swing technique are unrealistic.
We applied this procedure to a case study on pharmaceutical removal from wastewater of a typical Swiss hospital involving 13 stakeholders. Aim of the interdisciplinary research group was to assess a large bundle of combinations of novel point source measures. The ultimate policy objective was to develop consensus solutions which are acceptable to all important stakeholder groups. We hope that the suggested simplified procedure stimulates the application of transparent and conceptually satisfying decision support methods in environmental management, which is needed to justify policy decisions to the public.

The habitat requirements of macroinvertebrates vary widely. Eawag is developing a model for the prediction of benthic community composition in surface waters. In the future, the model could be used to support integrated river management and to predict the possible consequences of different management options or climate change.

Point-source measures have been suggested to decrease pharmaceuticals in water bodies. We analyzed 68 and 50 alternatives, respectively, for a typical Swiss general and psychiatric hospital to decrease pharmaceutical discharge. Technical alternatives included reverse osmosis, ozonation, and activated carbon; organizational alternatives included urine separation. To handle this complex decision, we used Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and combined expert predictions (e.g., costs, pharmaceutical mass flows, ecotoxicological risk, pathogen removal) with subjective preference-valuations from 26 stakeholders (authorities, hospital-internal actors, experts). The general hospital contributed ca. 38% to the total pharmaceutical load at the wastewater treatment plant, the psychiatry contributed 5%. For the general hospital, alternatives removing all pharmaceuticals (especially reverse osmosis, or vacuum-toilets and incineration), performed systematically better than the status quo or urine separation, despite higher costs. They now require closer scrutiny. To remove X-ray contrast agents, introducing roadbags is promising. For the psychiatry with a lower pharmaceutical load, costs were more critical. Stakeholder feedback concerning MCDA was very positive, especially because the results were robust across different stakeholder-types. Our MCDA results provide insight into an important water protection issue: implementing measures to decrease pharmaceuticals will likely meet acceptance. Hospital point-sources merit consideration if the trade-off between costs and pharmaceutical removal is reasonable.

Das per 1.1.2011 in Kraft getretene revidierte Gewässerschutzgesetz bringt den Kantonen in der Schweiz zusätzliche Verpflichtungen bezüglich der Revitalisierung morphologisch beeinträchtigter Gewässer und der Verminderung negativer Auswirkungen von Wasserkraftanlagen auf Gewässerökosysteme. Da auch neue Finanzierungsquellen erschlossen werden, sind diese neuen oder verstärkten Verpflichtungen eine grosse Chance für die ökologische Aufwertung der schweizerischen Gewässersysteme. Ähnliche Anforderungen an das Gewässermanagement wurden auch im Ausland etabliert, etwa in der Europäischen Union durch die Wasserrahmenrichtlinie (WFD, 2000). Das Ziel des Gewässermanagements muss es sein, mit den verfügbaren Mitteln einen möglichst grossen ökologischen und gesellschaftlichen Nutzen zu erzielen.

To evaluate the role of the benthic community within headwater stream ecosystems, it is crucial to understand the mechanisms of the processes dominating their turnover rates and temporal dynamics. To analyze the benthic community dynamics of an intermittent Mediterranean stream (Fuirosos, Spain), we developed a mechanistic model that describes the most important ecosystem components (five functional feeding groups of invertebrates, periphyton, and benthic organic matter) under consideration of important transformation processes. The model is an extension of that developed for application to the prealpine River Sihl (Switzerland). A combination of prior knowledge from the literature and information from field observations within a Bayesian framework is used to constrain plausible ranges of the estimated model parameters and to evaluate the uncertainty of the model outcome. The Bayesian inference resulted in a realistic description of most of the main features of the system, offered insights into the degree of information the data contains about model parameters, and also made it possible to quantify the dependence structure of the parameter estimates. Local and global sensitivity analyses revealed that rate parameters for growth and death of invertebrate functional feeding groups are most influential on the model results and additional information on these parameters would be most helpful to reduce output uncertainty. The study clearly points out the importance of organic matter dynamics, as allochthonous organic matter is the main energy source in this Mediterranean headwater stream. Hydrological disturbances of the system such as droughts and floods lead to complex colonization patterns which would require additional data to support a more detailed description by an extended model. Furthermore, the study shows that it is possible to deal with a complex ecological model with eight state variables and more than 60 parameters in a Bayesian framework.

It has been recognized for many decades that the stoichiometry of biological reactions is important for linking ecological and biogeochemical processes. However, only during the past decade has the scientific community become aware that "biological stoichiometry" may also help bridge evolutionary biology and ecosystem ecology. This awareness led to increasing attention to biological process stoichiometry in ecology during the past decade. Despite this trend in ecological data analysis and interpretation, ecological models are still predominantly formulated without sufficient attention to process stoichiometry. To support scientists in formulating stoichiometry in process models based on elemental mass conservation, we transfer techniques from chemical process engineering to achieve the following objectives: (i) develop a generic mathematical framework to formulate and solve stoichiometric equations; (ii) facilitate the extension of currently used process stoichiometries to consider more elements (e.g. adding S and/or Si to C, H, O, N and P); (iii) identify the need for stoichiometric constraints of biogeochemical processes in addition to elemental mass balances; (iv) unify approaches to characterize organic matter by elemental mass fractions, organic carbon, or chemical oxygen demand; (v) provide a small package of functions for the statistics and graphics software R (http://www.r-project.org) to support environmental model building, and (vi) show how to incorporate automatic stoichiometric calculations into next generation environmental simulation software. The small R package "stoichcalc" can be downloaded from http://www.eawag.ch/^~reichert or from the package repository of the R project (http://www.r-project.org).

Mit dem von uns entwickelten Simulationsmodell ERIMO (Ecological River Model) können wichtige Prozesse in Fliessgewässern abgebildet werden. Dabei wurden die am Flussgrund lebenden Algen und wirbellosen Tiere modelliert sowie mögliche Modellunsicherheiten berücksichtigt.

The Ecological River Model (ERIMO) developed by our group makes it possible to simulate key processes in running waters. Our modelling covers benthic algae and invertebrates and takes model uncertainties into account.

Le modèle de simulation ERIMO (Ecological River Model) que nous avons développé permet de décrire d’importants processus se déroulant dans les cours d’eau. Pour le mettre au point, une modélisation des algues et invertébrés vivant au fond du lit a été réalisée et les incertitudes de modélisation ont été prises en compte.

Background, aim and scope: Contaminated mine drainage water has become a major hydrogeological and geochemical problem. Release of soluble metal contaminants and acidity from mining sites can pose serious chemical risks to surface and groundwater in the surrounding environment, and it is an important socio-economic factor addressed by working groups like SUITMA Morel and Heinrich (J Soils Sediments 8:206-207, 2008). The release of Zn and Pb from sulfide-bearing flotation residues of a small scale mine in Western Germany is investigated with focus on metal transfer to soil solution. Total contents of the soil material as well as soil water sampled with suction cups were analyzed. The influence of pH on leaching behavior was investigated with pH_stat tests. Isotopic analyses helped assessing seepage water velocity. The aim of this study was the assessment of the environmental behavior of zinc and lead caused by the weathering of sulfide-bearing mine tailings. Especially, we address in this paper the dissolution of sphalerite (ZnS) in contrast to the well-known dissolution processes of pyrite (FeS₂). [...]

1. Most of the existing river ecosystem models describe only part of the ecosystem, have site-specific features, and lack an adequate treatment of uncertainty.
2. We developed a dynamic model of the functional groups of non-filamentous and filamentous algae, scrapers, collector-gatherers and predators of the benthos community in rivers. This model is based on relatively universal model formulations and is intended to be a first submodel for a more complete model of the river ecosystem and the biogeochemical processes in the river.
3. The model was tested for the River Sihl in Switzerland. To take advantage of prior knowledge of model parameters, to account for their non-identifiability given the measured data, and to consider uncertainty of model parameters and results, Bayesian inference was used to update the prior probability distribution of the model parameters.
4. The calibrated model showed very good agreement of model results with measured data. None of the posterior parameter marginals showed a conflict with the prior. Some posterior marginals (specific growth rates of the functional groups, specific death rates, parameters characterizing self- and mutual shading of algae, and the critical level of discharge for catastrophic loss) were significantly narrower than the priors, indicating considerable gain of information from the measurements. For other parameters (half-saturation concentrations of algae and invertebrate growth, parameters characterizing temperature dependence of invertebrate growth rates, colonization rates and most coefficients of catastrophic loss), no significant information could be gained from the data. This clearly demonstrated the need for a Bayesian analysis.
5. The model seems to be a promising step towards a more comprehensive model of the river ecosystem and the biogeochemical processes in the river. However, more efforts are required: In particular, extension of the model by a description of the dynamics of benthic biofilms and nutrient dynamics and application of the (extended) model to more rivers to learn about the dependence of model parameters on river characteristics. The difficulty of finding adequate data sets for testing such and extended models demonstrates the need for comprehensive measurement campaigns that get information of periphyton, benthic invertebrates, benthic biofilms, suspended and sedimented organic particles, suspended organisms and nutrient concentrations and transformation rates in the water column.

Sulfide-bearing mine tailings are a serious environmental problem around the world. In this study, the vertical distribution and speciation of Zn and Pb in the fine-grained flotation residues of a former sulfide ore mine in Germany were investigated to assess the inorganic weathering processes that effect the environmental risk arising from this site. Total metal contents were determined by X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (XRF). Mobilizable fractions of Zn, Pb, Fe, and Mn were quantified by sequential chemical extractions (SCE). Furthermore, the speciation of Zn was analyzed by Zn K-edge extended X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (EXAFS) to identify the residual Zn species. The variations in pH and inorganic C content show an acidification of the topsoil to pH 5.5. EXAFS results confirm that Zn is mainly bound in sphalerite in the subsoil and weathering reactions lead to a redistribution of Zn in the topsoil. A loss of 35% Zn and S from the topsoil compared with the parent material with 10 g kg^-1 Zn and neutral pH has been observed. If acidification proceeds it will lead to a significant release of Zn, S, and Pb to the ground water. In contrast to Zn, Pb is enriched in the mobile fraction of the topsoil by more than a factor of two compared with the subsoil which contains a total of 2 g kg^-1 Pb. Thus, the high bioavailability of Pb and the potential for Pb uptake by plants and animals currently represent the most severe threat for environmental health.

Metal mobility at contaminated sites can be assessed by soil water investigations or by leaching tests. Leaching tests are usually carried out in open contact with the atmosphere disregarding possible changes of redox conditions. This can affect the original metal speciation and distribution, particularly when anoxic samples are investigated. In this study, the applicability of common leaching tests (the German S4 test (S4), ammonium nitrate extraction (AmmN), and saturation soil extraction (SSE)) is tested for the assessment of zinc release from sulfide-bearing flotation residues of a former ore mine. Results are compared to soil solution samples obtained by centrifugation and suction cups. The influence of sample storage on S4 leaching test results is investigated in a long-term study to assess oxidation kinetics. Within the first 200 days the release of zinc increases with a slope of 0.1 mmol kg^–1 d^–1 or 6.0 mg kg^–1 d^–1, respectively. Since oxidation of the sulfide-bearing samples leads to a significant overestimation of metal release, a feasible modification for the conduction of leaching tests for anoxic material is proposed where oxidation is prevented efficiently. The modified SSE is found to be the only of the tested leaching procedures, which can be recommended for the assessment of current soil water concentrations at anoxic sites if direct investigation of the soil water is impossible due to technical reasons.