Department Systems Analysis, Integrated Assessment and Modelling

Water, armed conflicts and forced migration

Kigeme Refugee camp, Photo credit: Oxfam East Africa, CC by 2.0 Deed
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kigeme_refugee_camp_(8073663190).jpg

Water resources and armed conflicts interact in a tightly coupled relationship. Water scarcity creates enabling conditions for conflicts through its effect on food security and income uncertainty whereas, conversely, armed conflicts influence the hydrological cycle by disrupting agriculture and displacing refugees and their water needs. We characterize these interactions, both from an empirical perspective looking at the effect of past armed conflicts on food and water availability,  and from theoretical/predictive lens looking at the potential for hydrological change to affect future conflicts.

Team

Dr. Marc Müller Tel. +41 58 765 6740 Send Mail
Dr. Julie Faure Tel. +41 58 765 5968 Send Mail

Publications

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      authors => protected'Bertassello, L.; Winters, P.; Müller, M. F.' (64 chars)
      title => protected'Access to global wheat reserves determines country-level vulnerability to co
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      description => protected'The Russia–Ukraine conflict reduced global wheat supplies, yet the food se
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         ainian wheat exports in 2022 resulting in >70% import losses in some of t
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         felt in Egypt, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Mauritania, Yemen and Lebanon. Dif
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Access to global wheat reserves determines country-level vulnerability to conflict-induced Ukrainian wheat supply disruption

The Russia–Ukraine conflict reduced global wheat supplies, yet the food security implications vary across countries. We identify a 39% decrease in Ukrainian wheat exports in 2022 resulting in >70% import losses in some of the countries most vulnerable to these disruptions, with substantial impacts felt in Egypt, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Mauritania, Yemen and Lebanon. Differential impacts are a function of access to capital and international trade, suggesting the need for policy measures to defuse the impending food crisis.
Bertassello, L.; Winters, P.; Müller, M. F. (2023) Access to global wheat reserves determines country-level vulnerability to conflict-induced Ukrainian wheat supply disruption, Nature Food, 4, 673-676, doi:10.1038/s43016-023-00806-w, Institutional Repository

Contact

Dr. Marc Müller Tel. +41 58 765 6740 Send Mail