Department Surface Waters - Research and Management

The understanding of physical dynamics is crucial to provide scientifically credible information on lake ecosystem management. We show how the combination of in situ observations, remote sensing data, and three-dimensional hydrodynamic (3D) numerical simulations is capable of resolving various spatiotemporal scales involved in lake dynamics. This combination is achieved through data assimilation (DA) and uncertainty quantification. In this study, we develop a flexible framework by incorporating DA into 3D hydrodynamic lake models. Using an ensemble Kalman filter, our approach accounts for model and observational uncertainties. We demonstrate the framework by assimilating in situ and satellite remote sensing temperature data into a 3D hydrodynamic model of Lake Geneva. Results show that DA effectively improves model performance over a broad range of spatiotemporal scales and physical processes. Overall, temperature errors have been reduced by 54 %. With a localization scheme, an ensemble size of 20 members is found to be sufficient to derive covariance matrices leading to satisfactory results. The entire framework has been developed with the goal of near-real-time operational systems (e.g., integration into meteolakes.ch).

Lakes and reservoirs contribute substantially to atmospheric concentrations of the potent greenhouse gas methane. Lake sediments produce large amounts of methane, which accumulate in the oxygen-depleted bottom waters of stratified lakes. Climate change and eutrophication may increase the number of lakes with methane storage in the future. Whether stored methane escapes to the atmosphere during annual lake overturn is a matter of controversy and depends critically on the response of the methanotroph assemblage. Here we show, by combining 16S rRNA gene and pmoA mRNA amplicon sequencing, qPCR, CARD-FISH and potential methane-oxidation rate measurements, that the methanotroph assemblage in a mixing lake underwent both a substantial bloom and ecological succession. As a result, methane oxidation kept pace with the methane supplied from methane-rich bottom water and most methane was oxidized. This aspect of freshwater methanotroph ecology represents an effective mechanism limiting methane transfer from lakes to the atmosphere.