Department Water Resources and Drinking Water

Forecasting groundwater levels

Groundwater has historically been perceived as a secure source of freshwater that is relatively resistant to changes in meteorology. Extreme hydrological events in recent years (floods and droughts) have shown that groundwater may be more vulnerable than previously assumed. To support decision making on groundwater resource management, a good understanding and forecasting of groundwater dynamics is required. These dynamics depend on a variety of stresses such as precipitation, evaporation, river dynamics, and groundwater pumping. We explored the application of lumped-parameter models using impulse response functions to simulate observed groundwater levels from the Swiss nationwide groundwater monitoring network (NAQUA). High levels of accuracy were achieved with this approach. In the project, we applied this new type of models to (i) systematically analyze the sensitivity of groundwater systems in Switzerland to extreme events and (ii) forecast groundwater levels. The results from the project are used to develop an operational groundwater information system, helping water decision makers to make short- and long-term decisions on the management of groundwater.